I think I'm 148 degrees into a 180 on my feelings about the Elton Brand signing. And it's not the slow start. This summer I felt pretty good about the aggressive move Stefanski made to get EB. I thought that we needed to establish a real low post offense if we wanted to cross the threshold of possible contention. It was a more mature look for our young, scrappy, atheltic squad.
While I have not eschewed all this sound thinking in one fell swoop, I have got a new (old) theory on what it really takes to contend. Basically, you gotta have a Dominant Force on your team. If you don't, you can't consistently get the big baskets and big stops in the biggest games. So, what is a Dominant Force? Simply put, it's a player who can have his way no matter what when he really needs or wants to. Now, let's distinguish what we're talking about here. Jamal Crawford is a guy who can light it up, take over for stretches of a game, even dominant an entire game, but he is not a Dominant Force. Dominant Force guys can do what Crawford did the other night on the biggest stages. By definition, Dominant Force guys are not one-way players. If you're a liability 50% of your time on the court, you can't be a Dominant Force. This doesn't mean you have to All-World on both sides of the ball, but you have to be superlative on one and at least competent on the other.
So who are the Dominant Force guys in the league right now?
Kobe, Flash, Lebron, CP3, PeePee, Fundamentals, and possibly a couple others. As you can see, it's not a long list. There's one guy on the cusp in my opinion, and that's Dwight Howard. He could be a decent impression of Shaq as soon as this playoffs. A guy who used to be, and still might be, is T-Mac. Now mind you, all these guys haven't done it all deep in the playoffs. It's not only guys who have proven it. Dominant Forces are guys you know, given the opportunity, could impose their will on games in the latest parts of the season. AI was a Dominant Force.
So why am I talking about all this? Until a team has one of these guys, they are not a true contender. You may be eager to say something about the Pistons in 05. Chauncey was a Dominant Force in the clutch at that time, and that's all they needed because their defense was so ridiculously tight.
What I'm afraid of, is that I'm going to like the Sixers better without EB over the next month or so. I think I already do (and it's not just the win streak). If EB is not a game changer for our team, why not let Marresse Speights start at that 4 for 1/30th of what EB makes? I like his promise, more thanI like Elton's jumper. Why not trade EB for expiring contracts, picks and/or cheaper talent, and wait until we can go after a Dominant Force? I know it's early to call for EB to be traded. I know Stefanski will never admit a mistake this early. I just feel like a supervisor who's made a bad hire. When that new person ain't right, you usually know almost immediately, but you wait because it seems wrong to pass judgement that quickly. But you know, and you feel like you have to "give them a chance" even though it's an exercise by which they will hang themselves with the rope they've been given. You know what I'm talking about. EB is feeling a little C-Webbish to me. Not the crybaby ways, but the disappointing free agency big man who's past his prime. Honestly, this has less to do with Elton than it does with the Sixers. It's not him, it's us. We're not there, and overpaying him won't help us get any closer. Even though Iggy's overpaid, he's the one you keep out of those two. With EB, we're a disappointment for the next couple of seasons. Without him, we're a young, promising team waiting for the right thing to happen. We're us last year. Watching a team like that feels more fun than watching one doomed to let us down.
And just to be clear, I don't think this is about the summer of 2010. I think there are a couple of players already in the league who could become Dominant Forces, but are not there yet. Danny Granger and Brandon Roy come to mind. Given the right environment OJ Mayo could have the potential. It think it's about looking for one of those guys at the end of their rookie contract, or doing whatever needs to be done to get high enough in the draft if we feel we've identified one. I admit this strategy doesn't not feel nearly as concrete or satisfying as stealing EB from the Clips did. It's one where we we know we'll be good, but waiting for that missing piece. And, of course, you can't wait too long or folks lose steam. I just feel like getting a mulligan with Wally Szebriak's contract wouldn't be a bad way to go. I think an undue pressure would be released.
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4 comments:
Dude, you need to chill.
I know you don’t think you need to chill. You don’t think that you’re panicking. But you are. You’ve crafted a sound, rational argument for why you feel this way and what you think needs to be done. But little of it makes sense. You’re just freaking out, Yo. So chiiiiiiiil.
First of all, a championship team does NOT need a Dominant Force. It helps, yeah — but you don’t NEED it. What you need is a Go-To Guy—that one guy who can score when his team needs it (you also need a team that can get a stop when it matters, too, but that’s something else). Chauncey Billups, to be clear, was a GTG — not a DF. Really, to call him a DF is laughable. To even put Chauncey’s name in the same sentence with Flash, Kobe, LBJ, PeePee, etc., is a crime unless it’s this particular sentence.
Why do you think I keep talking about recruiting Iverson this offseason? We need that one guy, that GTG.
Come on, you’re ready to trade EB already? The dude was brought to a new city where he played 24 games with a new team that had a head coach who was about as creative as Rain Man. Give EB a chance to work in the right scheme, man.
And no, EB is not your GTG. Nor did we ever think he would be. Really, we all either secretly or outwardly hoped that Iggy would evolve into that role — that our poor-man’s ‘Melo would turn into more of a straight-up ‘Melo type. And over the past couple of seasons (as you know, U), I’ve been moving steadily away, degree by degree, from my belief that it would ever happen. And I’m now about 168 degrees into my 180. It ain’t happening for Iggy. Sorry, but it’s true. We’ve seen him reach his ceiling.
Which brings me to this, the biggest panic statement of your post: you wanna trade away EB but keep Iggy? That’s your starting move? Man, did you start smoking the mistletoe early this Christmas season? (It’s cool, you can tell me. In fact, I’ll probably stop by later with my bong.) But seriously, you’re high sayin’ that shit, right?
Talkin' bout high. You're the guy that wants to pay Kirk Hinrich $10M a season. You're also the guy who's found the opportunity in 4 different posts to bring up bringing back AI. Let the past go, G.
I'm not panicking, I'm just sayin'... Elton is not a Dominant Force or a Go to Guy or any of that right now. Maybe he can get back to being a 20-10 guy, but you and I both know it won't last longer than a full season if it does happen. Maybe we get that production through the end of 2010. Then what? A guy putting up 15-7, making $17M a season? If we're a contender right now then this makes sense. If we can magically turn Sammy, Iggy or 'Dre into a go-to scorer via trade, then maybe we gotta shot. I'm just asking if that makes sense, or will the tail begin to wag the dog. I have no committment to EB at this point. At this point, he could stay or go based onwhatever's best for the team. And if ultimately he's a compliemntary player, then why does it make sense to spend a fifth of our cap space on him? No more than it does in Iggy's situation. All I'm sayin' is, at least Iggy has his health and his best years in front of him.
I concede that it may be early for such talk. What I fear though, is that as early as next year you'll be bitching to me about how we need to get rid of Elton. No doubt, he needs a real coach, with a real system, to see what is possible. I guess since the organization has decided it's no longer going to try and contend this season, I got to feeling like it might be prudent (and a little more fun as a fan) to start over. I mean, given where we are, do you think deep down, that Stefanski would sign EB again this past offseason? Or would he consider waiting a year or two? I'm not second guessing his strategy, but here we are. On paper, it still looks like a very good team. No doubt it could be. But if we're giving Tony DiLeo the reins, and wasting the youngest of the 6 years on EB's contract and we're not the contender we hoped to be, then what are we doing?
The other thing that drove my comments - I think we have to move either Iggy, Thaddeus, Speights or Brand for this team to make sense. Otherwise, we're wasting talent/potential/roster slots between the 3 and 4 position. Especially, with Reggie Evans tossed inthe mix. That;s not enough guys who bring something different. Iggy's not a SG, so he's gotta shift over. Thaddeus seems to operate well at the 4 on offense, but is too small to defend normal size 4's. Reggie is a one dimensional guy, who's also undersized. Even our prized free agency pick up is 6'8' and has seen as an overachiever most ofhis career. With decreasing athleticism he's going to age quickly. Speights (though young and raw) is the best long term option we currently have at the PF position. Thaddeus can be a very good SF when his shooting and wing defense gets more consistent. So, we don't make a lot of sense.
If Iggy could play SG, we could be nasty. Maybe in time, with the right coach he could. Let's hope. Otherwise, we're gonna need a second face lift.
"If Iggy could play SG, we could be nasty. Maybe in time, with the right coach he could. Let's hope. Otherwise, we're gonna need a second face lift."
I agree with everything you wrote. No one is expendable. I just think (and you concede) that it's waaay too early to start talking about trading EB.
Your quote above says it all to me. You have to trust your gut sometimes. When I heard about the EB acquisition, my gut was tickled with happiness. When I clicked ESPN.com day after day to find out what was shaking with Iggy's deal, my gut was aching. I knew -- KNEW -- that we were going to pay too much for him, because the L sets a certain expectation for players of a certain caliber, and Iggy could've certainly walked and gotten that money elsewhere and Stephanski woulda looked the fool to let him do that. All that said, Iggy is paid too much.
Paid too much, in part, because you HAVE to pay a guy like EB $17M. Good bigs get paid a little too much, that's the rule, and we know this. Lame-ass bigs with unfulfilled "upside," like Sammy, get paid too much by a fool. (Yeah, I'm talking to you King.)
Anyway, I've said it before and I'll repeat it here: Sammy gots to go! Go, go, go, go! And since 'Dre has a) high value and b) no real reason to stay here, he's next on my auction block.
Next is Iggy.
We need a steady -- not great, but steady -- long-term PG, and a GTG. Oh, and a great coach. We get those elements, then we've got a team. A very good, possibly great team.
I think there's a distinct difference between a Dominant Force and a Go to Guy, but we can pick that up later. If we are going to keep EB, which we are, then I give you my list of guys who should stay and guys who can go (who are not on veteran contracts).
Sammy (can go), J. Smith (can go) EB (will stay), Speights (stays), Reggie (can go), Thaddeus (stays), Iggy (can go), willie (can go), Lou (stays), 'Dre (can go), Ivey (can go).
That's alot of pieces to put together in a trade. I predict we will move 'dre at the deadline. Maybe more, depending on the deal.
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