Winning: a matter of chance?

“I’d rather take my chances [by not trading him and risking him walking at season’s end] and give this team a chance to make a jump this playoffs.”

I’m kicking this one off Umi, quoting you from your last reply on the last post (on whether or not the Erz should trade Andre Miller).

Where does this attitude come from, this “Anything can happen in the playoffs, so let’s just get there and see” attitude? Is it a Philly thing? Is it a notion rendered from years and years of disappointment and desperation? (The two seem far from mutually exclusive.) Whatever its roots, it’s an unhealthy worldview for a sports fan — one built on the subconscious belief that you aren’t inherently good enough, and that whatever good comes your way is due, at least in part, to mere chance/luck.

It’s a loser’s mentality. It may COME from losing, but nonetheless, the cycle repeats; we get so weary that we talk ourselves into foolish things, which then cause further losing, and on and on — like a depressed person who eats himself into an overweight state, then gets further depressed over said state, and responds by eating even more.

But you want to “take your chances,” eh man? Hey, I’m with you on a lot of points: ‘Dre IS the most seasoned and knowledgeable vet we have, who has the best handle, who’s unselfish and can set up the young guys to score, and who makes tough shots in the clutch. He’s a highly desirable PG, which is rare in this league.

But this team sucks. And before last season ended — even given a miraculous winning streak in the latter half, capped off by an unexpectedly promising first-round playoff appearance that scared the piss out of the much-better Pistons — ‘Dre said of his future with the team, “Hmm, we’ll see” (paraphrased). Translation? “I’m getting to the end of my career and I want to win the Big One. So while this team is looking good, it needs to make a huge jump forward — i.e., become a legit title contender — if I’m gonna sign another contract that will, in effect, tether me here till the end of my career.”

And I think we can agree that the Brand move, thus far, has proved to be less than a huge jump forward. So why should we believe he’ll stay?

THAT’s why I say he’s more valuable as a trade piece. He’s walking, Umi. Gone. Let’s face that now, accept it as fact. Forget “taking chances” and “hoping beyond hope.” Let’s instead, for once, as a city, think practically* and with a long view.

Personally, I’d rather have a nice piece or two plus a draft pick than merely let ‘Dre walk and be holding $9M worth of cap space. Unless, of course, you can also trade Sammy for an expiring contract. If that’s Stephanski’s aim — to set the Erz up to make pitches to the free agent class of LeBron/Wade/Melo/Bosh — then I’m all about it. That’s thinking big, and that’s exactly what winners do.

Otherwise, Stephanski should trade his ‘Dre stock while the price is high. You can’t be like all those people out there right now freaking, selling off their stocks and reducing their 401(k) contributions. Are you people crazy?! Since 1925, the NYSE — including all stock market crashes and corrections, INCLUDING the Great Depression — has averaged a 12% return. 12%!!! At 12%, your money will DOUBLE every 6.25 years! And now you can buy stock at bargain-basement prices! Unless you’re going to retire tomorrow, there is absolutely no reason you shouldn’t be buying all the stock you can right now. (Especially Apple. Steve Jobs gets sick, the stock drops 20%. Buy, dammit! You think people are gonna stop buying iPods and iPhones anytime soon? Buy, buy, BUY!!!)

Anyway, where was I?

-G

*And don’t even get me started with these fool Eagles fans who are already talking Super Bowl victory. Wasn’t McNabb riding pine 7 games ago? This team is weak. WEAK. Its QB and its coach are in a bad marriage that’s been going on far too long. And you never know which set of attitudes is gonna show up. Yeah, they might beat Arizona; but it’s equally likely that McNabb will throw 3 INTs, and Westbrook will get stopped on the wrong side of the end zone as many times. Can you really rely on defense and Aikers to do all your scoring? Maybe. And who knows, the offense might look like Isrealis in the Gaza. But my faith is low. And even if we do pull it off on Sunday, do you really like this labile team against the Steelers???

Seriously, if you had to bet your house on it RIGHT NOW, yes or no, one way or the other, to the question of whether the Eagles win the Super Bowl this year, would you bet YES? I wouldn’t.

New Year's Resolutions

Here's my takeaways from the last 2-3 weeks of Sixers basketball and my 3 New Year's resolutions for the Sixers.


1) Be a bully. This one is for Andre Igoudala. Fortunately, Iggy didn't lose all his game changing ability when he got his contract this past offseason. In fact, his best career move would be to get a little more Bron-ish with his game. His jumper is unreliable. He should keep working on it. In the meantime, he needs to focus on becoming as close to unstoppable as he can get when going to his dribble drive. He's almost always the most athletic player on the court. He's stronger, faster and a better finisher than just about any other wing player in the league. He needs to play like it, and translate his youtube-ready fast break game into consistently getting close shots or drawing contact when he goes to the hoop on isos. He doesn't have the handle or defensive IQ to be a young Scottie, but he can be a poor man's Bron Bron (or a King's nephew) with a nice all around game.

2) Do not trade 'Dre Miller (unless it's an absolute Godfather deal). Point guard play is crucial, especially in the playoffs. We have a top 10 guy right now. And when you're bad or mediocre at that position you have no shot of winning it all. If he were a wing player, I'd quickly send him to the highest bidder. But again, after center, PG is the hardest position in the league to fill with quality. He's more than a highly valued commodity. He's a guy, baring serious injury, who can anchor a contender for the next 2-3 seasons. If a a can't-say-no-trade doesn't happen, I'd try to extend him for something like 4 years at $28M. If things don't work out or we get desperate, he'll be almost as valuable next year in the trade market.

3) Sammy gots to go. Sammy and Willie are the two guys on the squad who most of the time give you nothing. Kareem Rush could be added to that list I suppose. Point is, as you have said for a long time G, "Sammy sucks". Also, it's been made abundantly clear that Iggy is better at the 3. So, we need a SG who can shoot and a big man who's not a liability on the court and in the payroll structure. I've said this before, but I'll repeat: Sammy and Willie for Gerald Wallace and Raymond Felton is a doable trade. I really feel like LB would go for this. He doesn't like Wallace. He needs help in his front court. Sammy's a shot blocker and rebounder. If you're Stephanski and you can do this, wait no longer. Sammy's not the perfect compliment to Elton. He would be if he were reliable, but he is not. Start Speights at center for now. Let Theo, who's playing great, get 15-20 minutes off the bench. You're gonna need minutes for Speights once Elton comes back anyway. You've already got Thad as the first front court backup when EB returns, and both deserve to play. If you can't re-sign 'Dre, you've got Raymond Felton. Otherwise, he's a super solid backup. If Felton's a bust, his contract runs out at the end of next year. Few teams in the league have better than average centers. That trade would make us solid and deep 1-4.

'Dre (Felton, Ivey)
Wallace (Lou, Rush)
Iggy (Thaddeus, Donyell)
Elton (Evans)
Speights (Theo)

Think about it...