Friday, January 16, 2009

Winning: a matter of chance?

“I’d rather take my chances [by not trading him and risking him walking at season’s end] and give this team a chance to make a jump this playoffs.”

I’m kicking this one off Umi, quoting you from your last reply on the last post (on whether or not the Erz should trade Andre Miller).

Where does this attitude come from, this “Anything can happen in the playoffs, so let’s just get there and see” attitude? Is it a Philly thing? Is it a notion rendered from years and years of disappointment and desperation? (The two seem far from mutually exclusive.) Whatever its roots, it’s an unhealthy worldview for a sports fan — one built on the subconscious belief that you aren’t inherently good enough, and that whatever good comes your way is due, at least in part, to mere chance/luck.

It’s a loser’s mentality. It may COME from losing, but nonetheless, the cycle repeats; we get so weary that we talk ourselves into foolish things, which then cause further losing, and on and on — like a depressed person who eats himself into an overweight state, then gets further depressed over said state, and responds by eating even more.

But you want to “take your chances,” eh man? Hey, I’m with you on a lot of points: ‘Dre IS the most seasoned and knowledgeable vet we have, who has the best handle, who’s unselfish and can set up the young guys to score, and who makes tough shots in the clutch. He’s a highly desirable PG, which is rare in this league.

But this team sucks. And before last season ended — even given a miraculous winning streak in the latter half, capped off by an unexpectedly promising first-round playoff appearance that scared the piss out of the much-better Pistons — ‘Dre said of his future with the team, “Hmm, we’ll see” (paraphrased). Translation? “I’m getting to the end of my career and I want to win the Big One. So while this team is looking good, it needs to make a huge jump forward — i.e., become a legit title contender — if I’m gonna sign another contract that will, in effect, tether me here till the end of my career.”

And I think we can agree that the Brand move, thus far, has proved to be less than a huge jump forward. So why should we believe he’ll stay?

THAT’s why I say he’s more valuable as a trade piece. He’s walking, Umi. Gone. Let’s face that now, accept it as fact. Forget “taking chances” and “hoping beyond hope.” Let’s instead, for once, as a city, think practically* and with a long view.

Personally, I’d rather have a nice piece or two plus a draft pick than merely let ‘Dre walk and be holding $9M worth of cap space. Unless, of course, you can also trade Sammy for an expiring contract. If that’s Stephanski’s aim — to set the Erz up to make pitches to the free agent class of LeBron/Wade/Melo/Bosh — then I’m all about it. That’s thinking big, and that’s exactly what winners do.

Otherwise, Stephanski should trade his ‘Dre stock while the price is high. You can’t be like all those people out there right now freaking, selling off their stocks and reducing their 401(k) contributions. Are you people crazy?! Since 1925, the NYSE — including all stock market crashes and corrections, INCLUDING the Great Depression — has averaged a 12% return. 12%!!! At 12%, your money will DOUBLE every 6.25 years! And now you can buy stock at bargain-basement prices! Unless you’re going to retire tomorrow, there is absolutely no reason you shouldn’t be buying all the stock you can right now. (Especially Apple. Steve Jobs gets sick, the stock drops 20%. Buy, dammit! You think people are gonna stop buying iPods and iPhones anytime soon? Buy, buy, BUY!!!)

Anyway, where was I?

-G

*And don’t even get me started with these fool Eagles fans who are already talking Super Bowl victory. Wasn’t McNabb riding pine 7 games ago? This team is weak. WEAK. Its QB and its coach are in a bad marriage that’s been going on far too long. And you never know which set of attitudes is gonna show up. Yeah, they might beat Arizona; but it’s equally likely that McNabb will throw 3 INTs, and Westbrook will get stopped on the wrong side of the end zone as many times. Can you really rely on defense and Aikers to do all your scoring? Maybe. And who knows, the offense might look like Isrealis in the Gaza. But my faith is low. And even if we do pull it off on Sunday, do you really like this labile team against the Steelers???

Seriously, if you had to bet your house on it RIGHT NOW, yes or no, one way or the other, to the question of whether the Eagles win the Super Bowl this year, would you bet YES? I wouldn’t.

1 comment:

U. Howard said...

Feelin' a little half glass empty?

There was a lot in that last rant. I won't try to cover it all. So, let me start at the end. Are you saying that in the off chance the Eagles actually win the SuperBowl that Eagles fans will still have been foolish for believing in them? Or, are they only foolish if they end up losing? Mind you, I'm the last guy you'll find predicting certain victory or puffing my chest out about the Iggles (which is why they have gone unmentioned in this space by me just like the Phillies did), but is this really the time to shit on them? Are you the type of fan waiting with your I-told-you-so in your back pocket all the way up until the final triumphant moment? If so, don't get all relieved or happy if they actually win (here's were you say "they have no chance, so don't worry").

They're two games away. They've had a fucked up season. They've clearly had their era-threatening issues. And no, one or two games does not make up for half a decade of frustration, or what are still deep rooted problems. But a Superbowl trophy sure would make me feel better. If the stars align, like they did for the Giants last year or the Colts a couple years ago, I'll take it. Call it a loser mentality if you want, but playoff winning, especially in football, has as much to do with luck and timing and matchups as being the superior team. Plus, don't forget that this team is more than McNabb and Reid. I want them to win for Dawk, for Westbrook, for Runyan. Those guys deserve it as much as anyone in the League, and they're on our team too.

As for the Sixers, I think I'm taking the long view. You, I'm sure, would argue the same. Making a jump in the playoffs is not about being satisfied with mediocrity. It's just an acknowledgement that championship teams most typically take 2 to 3 years of playoff progression to get to contender status. Teams don't usually just jump like Boston did last year. This will be Cleveland's 4th year. Orlando's gone twice already. Utah's been there a couple times with their most recent squad. Even if Elton were lighting the world on fire, we couldn't rightfully expect to beat those teams this year. It's possible of course. But the point is, we need to do better than we did last year. Doing that is the incentive 'Dre would need ot stay. And if he didn't, it would build the confidence and attractiveness we would need to replace him and keep it movin'.

I hear your buy low, sell high examples. I get it. If I had any extra money I'd be buying up Apple stock right now. What I'm saying is, if we don't get a great deal in return, why do it? Move him just cus he could leave is not the way elite franchises approach their most valuable players. They figure out a way to keep them on board. It's actually the constant moving of pieces and treating players like poker chips that's the mark of a also-ran. The best franchises make a committment to their players and their coaches once they have deemed worthy. I'm not saying he's untouchable, but who's proven himself more valuable than 'Dre?